2024 March Madness South Region

Top seeds here on paper have a lot of good profiles. Houston opens it up in Memphis which is not an ideal location. They did already beat Texas A and M at a neutral court by only 4, so there is some history there. They did have non-con wins against Dayton and Texas A and M, so a decent but small track record. Only elite play was against other Big 12 teams who didn't really do anything out of confrence. 0 wins against top 30 teams non con, so don't like their long term plays.

Wisconsin/James Madison is an interesting game. They are both undefeated against their shared opponents (Michigan and Arkansas State), with half of James madisons WAB coming from their game one win against Michigan State. Wisconsin did win by huge margins against state every time they played. Duke has better results against their mutual matchups, and their WAB is terrible due to some losses against my Yellow Jackets.

Like Duke over Wisconsin due to their Q1 WAB, but Houston over Duke in my heart. Model actually has duke favored over Houston if they get there.

Next up is the 6/3. NC State has a really good Turnover Margin, which is the #1 predictor of success the first weekend, so they are a slight favorite in my model. Last year they were favored over Creighton in my model, and that didn't work out great. Texas Tech didn't really play anyone notable out of conference, and lost their only two games to teams flirting with the tournament. Kentucky looks good. Flirting with 500 in Q1 games Kentucky is a lock here. For the 7/10, we have a boise state team who beat Saint Mary's OOC and a decent florida team. Do have Boise State favored, but don't like the MWC at all due to the lack of decent scheduling out of conference. 2 seed Marquette aiming to fix last years woes. Really strong OOC showing second to duke. Like Marquette to the sweet 16 here as well. There has only been one 1/2 matchup in the elite 8 in the past few 4 years. I do like Marquette the most of the two seeds. Houston does seem to actually be like due to their Q1 play during the confrence play, but Duke and Marquette's OOC schedule results make them attractive dark horse candidates for the final four.