Let's start out with a little chaos and preface to some of the "offline" reccomendations for brackets
-1-4 seeds with a negative turnover margin make the sweet 16 at a 45% clip lower than those with positive turnover margins. Find what teams are negative (This year it is (1) Alabama, (1) Purdue, (2) Arizona, (3) Xavier, and (4) Indiana. Historically, pick two to advance and the other 3 to one and done)
Use the T.O.R.S.O.S methodology: Turnover ratio, Offensive Rebounds, Strength of Schedule
If a team has a turnover ratio (defensive turnovers divided by offensive turnovers) better by 0.2 than its opponent, they are your favorite. If, in a matchup, a team has an offensive rebounding rate greater than 6%, they become your favorite. If a team is more of a favorite, pick them. Tie breaker is strength of schedule. repeat till you have a team in the final 4.
With that in mind, let's look at the east. Looking at 4 different variations of my model, i had Marquettex1, Tennessex2, and in this monstrosity of factors, had FAU.
Pod 1: Columbus, OH
Although this does have FAU beating Purdue, Memphis would be an underdog in this model. As stated earlier, Purdue is a walking red flag with a negative turnover margin, and hits the threshold for the TORSOS turnover ratio against either opponent, similar to Illinois situation in 2021 in matchups against Georgia Tech or Loyola, which leads me to believe they have a good chance at an early exit.
Pod 2: Orlando, FL
Tennessee is the advanced stats love child, mostly due to holding opponents to a sub 25% 3PT% during the non conference part of their schedule. If you change filters on Bartorvik to starting from February 1st, Duke looks more like a 4 seed and Tennessee looks more like a 7 seed. I don't like Oral roberts as the trendy 5/12 upset, although Duke does have a negative turnover margin and Oral Roberts does have a very positive one, which is usually a very good indicator. Although Abmas is back, the future Texas Tech transfer Obanor is no longer there. The defense of the 2023 is much better than the 2021 sweet 16 team, but the shooting stats aren't quite there. I like Duke to win, and i like looking at past results, as Duke and Purdue have already played this year, so if Purdue does beat Memphis/FAU, i think they easily repeat a win here to move on to the elite 8.
Pod 3: Greensboro, NC
Providence is one of the coldest teams in the country right now, being ranked 92nd since Febuary 1st. Their 3-8 Q1 record is also a red flag. I like kentucky a lot in that matchup. Kansas state is also a very overrated team, playing as the 28th best team in the past two months, but they do have a winning Q1 record, thanks to 3 Q1 overtime wins. This is the weakest pod of the bunch, but Kentucky has the edge In my opinion, especially given proximity to the site.
Pod 4: Colubmus, OH
USC is my projected favorite over michigan st. Marquette easily over either. Marqutte has also already played Purdue, which makes things very, very, interesting. Feels like 2021 Gonzaga, who had already played (And beat) the 2/3/4 seed lines in their bracket.
That said, this is how i think this bracket shakes out
Marquette shakes it out.
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