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March Madness 2024 Preview

Writer's picture: Scott MathisScott Mathis

Another Year another bracket.


Gonna Start with updates to the model and the general tricks. Regression from end of last year removed conference championships down to 0 weight across the board. It was removed as one of the criteria and weights, and i replaced it with Barttorviks Wins Above Bubble, from the beginning of the season until christmas. I know Uconn got shat on endlessly by me last year (oops) and that was one of the things they did well, so wanted to see what it did. Ended up being the #1 weighted item for the second weekend, but showed little predictive success for the first weekend. Turnover margin still ends up being the #1 indicator for the first weekend. General rule of thumb: 1-4 seeds (the teams generally favored to make it to the sweet 16) make the sweet 16 if their turnover margin (defensive turnover rate - offensive turnover rate) is positive at a 50% greater rate than those teams that are negative. Last year I had FAU in the final four due to Purdue having a negative margin, and nailed the 2/5 teams that weren't going to make it. This year it ended up at 5 again, so only pick two of these teams to make your sweet 16:


3e-Illinois 4w-Alabama

3w-Baylor 1m-Purdue 3m-Creighton



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